Thursday night advance: Expect turnovers to loom large in 49ers-Seahawks

Pro Bowl wide receiver DK Metcalf has played the 49ers 11 times in his career. Long before the Seahawks drafted him, Seattle and San Francisco forged one of the NFL’s most heated rivalries. But Metcalf’s career is a good cross-section of recent history between the teams, who meet at Lumen Field on Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

A rookie when the 49ers advanced to the Super Bowl in 2019, Metcalf’s Seahawks are 5-6 against San Francisco, including a playoff loss. During the time he’s been in the league, the teams have combined for four of the five NFC West titles.

And in those 11 games, Seattle is 3-0 when it posts a positive turnover margin and just 2-6 when that ratio is even or negative. That’s important for Metcalf because he’s entering this week focusing on securing the football.

This season, he’s lost fumbles in each of the last two games and both have turned into opponent touchdowns. In last week’s 29-20 home loss to the Giants, Metcalf’s fumble early in the second half led to tie-breaking New York points. The Giants didn’t trail again.

Metcalf, who posted a career high with 12 catches in a 2020 home win over the 49ers, is off to a torrid start, on pace for single-season career bests in receptions (95) and yards (1,431). New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has featured the receiver when defenses dictate it. When they don’t, Grubb has shown flexibility to run the ball at any point in the game, including the second half in a Week 4 loss at Detroit.

Regardless of how San Francisco schemes the Seahawks, expect turnovers to loom large on Thursday night. Not only has Metcalf fumbled in each game of the Seahawks’ losing streak, Seattle has struggled to hold onto the ball over the last four weeks. Since their Week 1 victory, the Seahawks are minus-4 in turnover margin. During that period, only the Titans (minus-5) have been worse.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is tied for sixth among NFL teams with eight takeaways. The 49ers are a combined plus-3 in their two wins, and a combined minus-3 in their three losses.

San Francisco has lost three of its last four, including a 24-23 setback at home last week against Arizona. The 49ers (2-3) need a win at Seattle (3-2) to avoid falling two games behind the Seahawks in the NFC West. Plus, San Francisco has not been two games under .500 since Nov. 7, 2021, the season before the team selected Brock Purdy with the last overall pick in the 2022 draft.

While the 49ers have endured more than their fair share of snakebites since losing the Super Bowl in overtime, don’t think for a second they’ll happily give up a career night to Metcalf or anyone on the Seahawks’ offense. San Francisco still has linebacker Fred Warner, defensive end Nick Bosa and cornerback Charvarius Ward. Warner and Bosa have combined for four sacks and three interceptions.