Sportsbooks now have Comeback Player criteria, will adjust appropriately

Back in June, the Associated Press provided voters for the NFL’s prestigious Comeback Player of the Year award with new and clearer guidelines – and it wasn’t because Joe Flacco won the 2023 honor over Damar Hamlin.

Senior NFL writer Rob Maaddi had been trying to get new guidelines approved since Geno Smith won the award in 2022. The clearer criteria finally went into effect this past summer.

“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year award,” said Maaddi via X, quoting the new criteria, “is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

In other words, Sam Darnold now falls into a most-improved bucket and shouldn’t be considered a Comeback Player candidate because he hasn’t overcome illness or physical injury. As Carson Palmer shared last month, Darnold deserves credit for changing the trajectory of his career last season in the 49ers’ quarterback room while backing up Brock Purdy. But Darnold didn’t change his career trajectory within the new guidelines, overcoming significant adversity like a career-threatening injury or personal tragedy. While a Most Improved Player award is in the works, it’s not a reality just yet.

Here’s where the plot thickens. Award voters weren’t the only stakeholders to receive the Associated Press memo on the new guidelines. The Comeback Player is an award offered on betting platforms, which through the first five weeks of the NFL season have behaved like they never got the memo, even though the AP strongly publicized the new criteria in June.

Did oddsmakers take the path teenagers sometimes use with their parents, believing that asking for forgiveness is easier than asking for permission? Apparently naïve to the new criteria, sportsbooks have placed odds on players like Darnold, Justin Fields and Andy Dalton, none of whom fit into the new guidelines.

Analysts suggest that those odds might reflect more on the public’s perception and emotional investment in players’ stories rather than the strict criteria outlined by the AP. Betting platforms, always aiming to balance their books, might be leveraging the fanbase’s hope for the success of these players.

On Thursday, a representative from the popular site BetOnline.ag told Pro Football Post that the odds are now aligned with the new criteria.

“They’ve been made aware of the new guidelines and updated the lines appropriately,” said the representative, who asked to remain anonymous.

The discrepancy between the award’s criteria and odds highlights a broader issue in legalized sports betting, not just with BetOnline.ag. The influence of narrative and fan sentiment over factual criteria is a powerful loophole.

But after this week, that loophole should close. Past recipients have indeed battled back from severe injuries, such as ACL tears, or from serious health issues that sidelined them for extended periods. But winners have also included Smith and Flacco.

Lauren Easton, Associated Press vice president of corporate communications, clarified with Pro Football Post that voters are regularly reminded of the new guidelines as the season unfolds.

This year’s frontrunners, according to the refined guidelines, include players that embody the spirit of the award such as Joe Burrow, who ranks among NFL passing leaders after a season-ending injury, or Aaron Rodgers, who missed the entire 2023 season with a ruptured Achilles. The award will be announced at the annual NFL Honors celebration the week of the Super Bowl in New Orleans.

One thing is certainly clear after this week: No one should be able to claim they didn’t know.