The protect-the-football philosophy isn’t as old as the Jurassic Era, but even dinosaurs couldn’t win football games with so many turnovers. And as teams have embraced their running games more often than previous seasons, turnover margin is figuring more prominently into wins and losses. The Atlanta Falcons are the league’s poster child.
Kirk Cousins, 36, is no dinosaur by quarterback standards. Four players were age 36 or older when they passed for a total that ranked among the all-time top-10 marks in a single season. Cousins ranks third in the NFL this season with 3,396 passing yards. The problem is turnovers: He leads the NFL with 17.
“Turnovers are really what wins and loses these games,” said Audacy NFL insider Brian Baldinger, a former player, on Tuesday’s edition of the BMitch & Finlay show. “What happens in these games, games featuring these rushing attacks right now, is that instead of getting 12, 13 possessions in a game like normal – when you’re throwing it more than you’re running it — you’re only getting eight, sometimes nine possessions. If you’re turning it over on two of them like Atlanta is right now, you’re not going to win those games. You just don’t have enough possessions to win.”
Baldinger, who covered the Falcons’ 42-21 loss last week for Compass Media Networks, said Cousins doesn’t have the arm he once brandished.
“He can’t make the throws he used to make and that’s just a fact of getting old, older and coming off an Achilles’ injury,” Baldinger said. “He just can’t drive the ball the way he once did. He’s thrown eight interceptions in this four-game losing streak right now.”
Regardless, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris committed to Cousins following last week’s loss. Atlanta is in the thick of an NFC South race and needs only to tie first-place Tampa Bay (7-6) to win the tiebreaker because Cousins already led the Falcons to a pair of wins over the Buccaneers. Rookie Michael Penix, the No. 8-overall selection in the draft, is ready when the time comes.
That time might be sooner than Atlanta initially hoped, but two things are true for the Cousins and the Falcons. First, they still have plenty at stake this year, starting with their game at Las Vegas (2-11) on Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Second, if they want to play past Week 18, they better cut down on turnovers immediately.
In 11 of 13 games, they’ve finished with a negative turnover margin, games in which they had more giveaways than takeaways. Atlanta ranks 28th in the NFL with a minus-nine turnover margin (11 takeaways and 20 giveaways). Looking at the NFL’s bottom nine teams in that category, the Falcons (6-7) have the most wins in the group. In contrast, despite their internal drama, Philadelphia is on a nine-game winning streak, during which Jalen Hurts has thrown one interception and 12 touchdown passes.
“Who cares?” Baldinger said. “It’s about winning games, stacking Ws and getting ready for the playoffs. If you’ve got to throw…you’re going to have games where you have to come from behind or you’re going to have to make some big throws in big games, if that’s the case, that’s alright; there’ll be time to do that but, in the time being, take care of the football right now.”
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