Why developing quarterbacks is art, not science

This morning on ESPN’s Get Up, pundits deliberated present NFL quarterback development on the heels of the Colts benching Anthony Richardson. Ironically, the discussion immediately followed a debate about whether rookie Jayden Daniels is the 2024 midseason MVP — less than a year after C.J. Stroud earned NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

While Stroud and Daniels have shined as No. 2-overall selections, they’ve been overshadowed by struggles from other top-five selections such as Richardson (No. 4 overall), Bryce Young (No. 1), Zach Wilson (No. 2) and Trey Lance (No. 3). Whether the NFL’s quarterback development model is flawed is a fair question. 

From 2018-23, 19 quarterbacks were selected among the top 20. Of those 19, nine so far have not completed their rookie contracts with their draft teams. Players like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are seeing a resurrection with their fourth teams in 2024, but both struggled with their respective draft teams and were traded away. Are young players fresh out of college prepared well enough? Can elite athletic or physical traits compensate for a lack of starting experience or college pass attempts? Are NFL teams too quick to give up on a struggling young player? The answer to all these sorts of questions is simple: It depends.

Drafting the next head coach’s quarterback

There’s an expression in the NFL that drafting a quarterback in the first round is drafting the next head coach’s quarterback. It’s expected that a team poor enough to earn a top-5 selection likely has a coach on the proverbial hot seat, and it’s also probable that a rookie quarterback will struggle. Players of all positions ascending from the college game — where they’ve likely spent their careers looking at signs on the sideline for play-calls and audibles, instead of in a huddle listening — are often ill-prepared for the intricacies and expanded professional playbooks. When it comes to quarterbacks, there’s even more on their plates.

First-round draft picks — with few exceptions — are projected to be Year-1 NFL starters, many with impact-starter expectations. Occasionally the stars align for Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love scenarios, but far more often, first-round picks are expected to contribute as rookies, and top-5 picks are anointed franchise saviors. But rather than teaching a rookie quarterback to read defensive coverages from high to low or working on drop-back series technique, the first thing a quarterback is often taught is how to protect himself.

Why “playing fast” is sometimes too fast for rookies

In college football, student-athletes have classes, homework and exams in addition to their football workloads (or at least they should). College coaches typically employ scaled-down versions of playbooks that allow their players to “play fast” rather than rely on mental processing and elaborate checks. When scouting college quarterbacks, it’s common to find players taught to read only one side of the field (half-field progressions) or who are quick to tuck the ball and run if their first read is covered. Some of Art Briles’ great Baylor teams used to have the receivers on either the right or left side of the formation run pass routes on a given play, while the other side stood at the line of scrimmage just catching their breath. The next play, it flipped. In the NFL, typically all five eligible receivers are released into routes, providing the maximum number of opportunities for the quarterback to deliver the ball.

But learning to protect yourself is job No. 1 for NFL quarterbacks, more than simply learning to slide or running out of bounds. Before the ball is ever snapped, the signal-caller must have a deep understanding of the down and distance (D&D), the offensive personnel on the field, the defensive personnel matching up, who the offensive line is expected to block, what the defensive formation is alerting what’s to come post-snap, and who the quarterback is responsible for if the defense blitzes more guys than the offense can block.

Then, once the ball is snapped, the quarterback must read the defensive coverage, understand where the holes in the defense will be, anticipate how the receivers will adjust their route(s) to the coverage, and identify whether there’s a free rusher barreling down at them seeking to inflict pain. It’s not easy. And before toughness, athleticism, speed, arm strength, field vision or accuracy ever factor into the equation, the greatest single determining factor of a quarterback’s NFL success is whether he can mentally process and work through all these minutiae. And often, it takes repetition and time.

College experience matters

Former NFL coach Greg Knapp – himself a former quarterback – shared that he was not interested in a college quarterback without at least two years of starting experience. Ideally, the quarterback would be a three- or even four-year starter entering the NFL, providing an abundance of game experience. Four-year Iowa State starter Brock Purdy surely would have piqued the interest of the late Knapper.

In 2009, however, USC’s Mark Sanchez was selected fifth overall by the Jets, breaking a long tradition of multiple-season starters going in the first round. Nine years later, the Jets once again selected a USC quarterback in the top five, Darnold, after he completed a two-year stint as the Trojans’ starter. 

In Richardson, the Colts knowingly drafted a physically imposing and athletically talented quarterback with only 13 career NCAA starts. They’ve now benched him after 10 career NFL starts. His replacement, Joe Flacco, started 22 games at Delaware and 203 regular- and postseason NFL games. On Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), he’ll face off against Darnold and the Vikings in a battle between teams led by veteran journeyman quarterbacks playing in place of the supposed franchise saviors, proving that when it comes to securing NFL quarterback success, no one will definitively know until well after the draft is over. And that’s why finding a franchise quarterback is an art, not a science.