Analytics vs. old-school coaching might as well be Michigan planting its flag in the middle of Ohio State’s field. And in the Vikings’ dramatic 23-22 win over the Cardinals on Sunday, old-school coaching made a fateful decision.
With the Cardinals up 19-16 and 3:23 remaining in the fourth quarter, Arizona was on a 15-play drive that had consumed nearly eight minutes. Facing fourth-and-goal from the Vikings’ 4-yard line, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon opted for a chip-shot, 23-yard field goal from Chad Ryland to go up 22-16.
“The Vikings stole one because the Arizona Cardinals should’ve absolutely gone for it on fourth down,” said Dane Mizutani from the Pioneer Press on the Purple Insider podcast Sunday night. “People will say, ‘Why would they go for it? They would only be up three.’ If they failed, yes, they would only be up three. But the Vikings, just generally speaking, teams in that situation tend to clam up and play for the field goal. Instead, the Vikings were down six and they obviously played for the win, they go up one, they win the game.”
They won the game when Sam Darnold drove Minnesota 70 yards on eight plays in just 2:07, completing the march with a 5-yard touchdown pass to Aaron Jones with 1:13 left. Darnold was 5-of-8 for 57 yards on the crucial drive. John Parker Romo converted the game-winning extra point and Shaq Griffin’s interception iced the game for Minnesota (10-2).
“In the analytics community, that is called the field-goal death,” said co-host Matthew Coller. “And I remember learning of this, I think it was back in 2013, when Ron Rivera kicked a field goal rather than QB sneaking with Cam Newton, to go up six and then lost the game by a single point.”
Indeed, on Sept. 15, 2013, Buffalo beat Carolina – whose defensive coordinator ironically was Sean McDermott – when Rivera sent out Graham Gano for a 39-yard field goal rather than ask 6-5, 245-pound Newton to get 1 yard. Rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel then engineered a game-winning drive, throwing a touchdown pass with six seconds left in a 24-23 Bills win. On Sunday, Gannon said there was discussion on the Cardinals’ sideline.
“Just wanted to go up more than a field goal there,” said Gannon, “but definitely a decision point that we talked about. So be it. I wanted to make them score a touchdown to beat us there.”
They did, and credit the Vikings for overcoming a 19-6 deficit in the final 19 minutes. That’s when Darnold and the Minnesota offense awoke, scoring on three straight drives. Justin Jefferson finished with seven catches for 99 yards but he had five for 67 after halftime. The Vikings also got a big assist at the beginning of the fourth quarter from safety Byron Murphy, who picked off Kyler Murray at the Minnesota 32-yard line.
The Vikings are now 1-0 in December after going undefeated in both September and November. The Lions (11-1) have stolen the spotlight from Minnesota but that’s OK with the Vikings, who see a familiar face next week when Kirk Cousins and the Falcons (6-6) come to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. Arizona (6-6) remains a game behind first-place Seattle (7-5) in the NFC West, tied with the Rams (6-6). The Cardinals host the Seahawks in another battle for first next week at State Farm Stadium.
For more information on the Vikings and Cardinals, visit the Minnesota and Arizona team pages at ProFootballPost.com.
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