Watson, Winston, Wilson: Scenario planning for Browns offseason

Remove Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry from the list of endangered head coaches and general managers. According to CBS insider Jonathan Jones, the Browns will not be in the market to replace either next month. But Cleveland still faces two key questions.

Jameis Winston will start again when the Browns (3-10) host Kansas City (12-1) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). But what is the Browns’ exit strategy regarding Deshaun Watson? The quarterback ruptured an Achilles’ tendon Oct. 20 and underwent season-ending surgery a few days later. Watson reportedly is out at least nine months and will miss Cleveland’s offseason program. But set aside the season-ending injuries and any distracting off-the-field accusations since his arrival, the Browns are clearly a much better team without him on the field.

Watson was 1-6 with a 79.0 passer rating this season and, for financial reasons, the Browns are likely stuck with him for at least 2025. Not surprisingly, Jones’ sources confirmed Cleveland won’t release him this offseason. For context, releasing Russell Wilson this past spring is costing Denver $85 million in salary-cap space, an NFL record for a single player. Releasing Watson would create $119 million in dead money, Jones says, and the per-team salary cap next season will reportedly fall between $265-275 million.

While the Browns seemingly have to carry Watson on their roster, and they said this week they would look at everything, would Cleveland really put him back under center once he passes his physical? Regardless of whether Winston returns with a new contract in 2025, the Browns can still pursue a rookie quarterback. And while there’s a $34 million difference between the Denver and Cleveland situations, the Broncos still model the best path ahead. Even if Cleveland can’t release Watson, the Browns can still move forward with a rookie. Perhaps Stefanski and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey can find unique ways to utilize Watson, other than quarterback.

Yes, Bo Nix was part of a unique quarterback goldmine and the next class isn’t so deep. But if Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward aren’t available, Cleveland could potentially acquire one of the stars from that 2024 goldmine, J.J. McCarthy, depending on how the Vikings proceed with Sam Darnold.

And once the Browns do release Watson, whose guaranteed contract expires after 2026, they’d have a head start if they get a rookie in 2025. This season, the post-Wilson Broncos have a legitimate candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year in Nix. They’re also on the doorstep of the AFC playoffs with one of the league’s best defenses.

Defense is the second significant question for Cleveland. While the Browns were committed to Myles Garrett prior to the trade deadline, they might be open to trade offers for valuable draft choices once the season ends. A trade couldn’t officially happen until the new league year begins on March 12. Garrett’s contract reportedly has an $18.5 million bonus due if he’s on the Browns’ roster the fifth day of the league year.

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