New Year’s RB resolution: Will Cowboys face exception or rule?

Expect long lines this week for the AI-powered Jerry Jones hologram at AT&T Stadium. From the future of Mike McCarthy’s coaching staff to whether Trey Lance will see playing time against the Commanders, the Cowboys face key questions in most areas of the organization. The Dallas running game should be near the top of the list.

But Dallas shouldn’t expect to find another Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs or Joe Mixon. The Cowboys (7-9), who released Ezekiel Elliott on Tuesday, enter their season-finale with Washington (11-5) on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, FOX) ranked last in the league with only five rushing touchdowns and 27^th in the NFL with 97.2 rushing yards per game. Don’t expect the team to find a veteran to improve those numbers in 2025.

Let’s be honest – all the hyperbole about the NFL running-back market having a renaissance in 2024 was a fun topic of conversation this holiday season, but it’s unlikely to change. Sure, the Christmas matchup between the Ravens and Texans showcased Henry, who ran away quite literally from Mixon and the Texans. But the achievements of Barkley, Henry and other backs are merely exceptions to the rule of thumb rather than a new rule.

Entering the regular-season finale, six of the NFL’s top 15 rushers changed teams this past offseason. Barkley and Henry top the list, and Jacobs is presently fifth. In addition to their production, the three also share some other notable features. All three were selected in the top two rounds of their respective drafts, weighed over 220 pounds coming out of college, and left underperforming teams from a year ago for playoff contenders. Each of these is significant as each running back 1) has a history of being dynamic, 2) owns exceptional size to withstand the rigors of the position, and 3) is benefitting from a higher-producing supporting cast this year. 

Of course, with modern NFL offenses largely centered around the passing game, the running back’s luster has been eroded from the not-too-distant heydays of Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith (the two led the NFL in rushing for eight straight seasons in the 1990s, splitting the title four apiece).

Great running backs like Curtis Martin, LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson certainly proved to be effective well into their second (and even third) contracts more recently. Still, the NFL has largely accepted that the wear and tear absorbed by the position leads to diminishing returns after the first contract, and that the risk is not typically worth taking.

As an example, take the Colts of the late 1990s and early 2000s. They drafted Marshall Faulk second overall in 1994, signed him to a seven-year contract, and then traded him to the St. Louis Rams after Year 5. The following April, Indianapolis drafted Edgerrin James fourth overall, opted not to sign him to a long-term contract after his rookie contract expired, and instead franchise-tagged him for his final season with the team. The following April, the Colts opted for a similar strategy by drafting Joseph Addai in the first round, re-signing him to a one-year contract following the expiration of his rookie deal, and then moving on from him the next off-season.

Although just one organization, the Colts’ approach to running-back value largely mimics the modern prevailing thought around the NFL. Younger players are, generally speaking, more durable, faster to recover from injury, and more affordable than established veterans. So why run the risk of signing your franchise’s running back to a huge extension like the Rams did with Todd Gurley only to have it potentially set your team back?

Looking ahead to the 2025 free-agent class, two of the top impending free agents were recently signed to contract extensions by their respective clubs, Chuba Hubbard (Carolina) and James Conner (Arizona).

Other notable running backs listed by 2024 rushing production include Aaron Jones (1,093 yards), Najee Harris (1,007), Rico Dowdle (1,007), J.K. Dobbins (842) and Javonte Williams (485). Of the group, Dowdle – starting for the first time in his fifth NFL season – likely will sign the largest contract due partly to his outstanding season to date, and partly to the lack of wear and tear during his career. But none of these players, respectfully, is in the class of Barkley, Henry, Mixon or Jacobs, and it would be shocking to see any of them signed to a blockbuster agreement.

For those NFL clubs that prefer to add to their running-back rooms via the draft, April offers some intriguing alternatives. Players like DJ Giddens (Kansas State), Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty (Boise State), Omarion Hampton (North Carolina), Kaleb Johnson (Iowa), Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State), TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State), Jordan James (Oregon) and Dylan Sampson (Tennessee) headline a relatively deep positional group.

But regardless of which direction teams choose to go this offseason, it’s likely to be business as usual for NFL clubs as it relates to the running-back position. 

For more information on the Cowboys or the draft, visit the Dallas team page and the NFL Draft page at ProFootballPost.com.