Good luck, road teams. Homefield advantage rears its head more often during the divisional round than any other time during an NFL season. On average, only one road team wins a divisional playoff game. Could this year be the Ravens over the Bills?
Las Vegas thinks so. Baltimore is a one-point favorite as of Thursday afternoon. That’s significant because Buffalo and Kansas City were the league’s only undefeated home teams in 2024. Since 2020, Buffalo owns the NFL’s second-best home winning percentage (.784, 29-8), and only the Chiefs (.789, 30-8) have a better home mark in that span. Buffalo is even better in home games Dec. 1 and later. The Bills are 19-3 (.964) over that period in December and January.
In 12 of the prior 15 years, at least three home teams have won the four divisional playoff games. Home teams were 4-0 in both 2015 and 2018. And the road team that survives this week has a great shot at the Super Bowl.
Respected NFL analyst Greg Cosell said Thursday the reason Baltimore could thrive in that road role is because Lamar Jackson and the Ravens give defenses more challenges than any NFL unit.
“They came out against the Steelers and they pretty much said, ‘Not only do you have to stop Derrick Henry, but you have to stop Lamar in the run game,” Cosell said on Thursday’s edition of The Herd with Colin Cowherd. “So, it wasn’t just the threat of Lamar. They said we’re going to run him and you have to stop him.”
Cosell said that when Baltimore (13-5) meets Buffalo (14-4) on Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS), observers will find out quickly whether the Bills can stop the run.
“I’m really curious to see how the Bills can handle it,” Cosell added. “I mean, Ed Oliver is a really good player, but he’s 280 pounds. So, I’m curious to see how this all plays out. And I think we’ll find out pretty early because I think you’ll see the same kind of thing from Baltimore with Lamar being a factor in the run game early, to see how the Bills tactically are going to defend that.”
The bigger question might be how Baltimore tactically defends Josh Allen, who in eight career home playoff starts is 6-2 with 17 touchdown passes, three INTs and a 107.0 passer rating. But in Buffalo’s biggest games this year, he was most dangerous on the ground. He had 68 yards and two rushing touchdowns in the Bills’ win at Detroit, 82 yards and three rushing TDs in a narrow loss to the Rams, and 55 yards with a “play of the year in the NFL” touchdown run in the win over Kansas City.
Allen and the Bills aren’t getting much respect this week. They’re an underdog for the first time in 42 games, when they crushed Miami, 56-26, in Week 17 of the 2020 season. Allen is also the first quarterback named first- or second-team All-Pro who didn’t have an All-Pro teammate.
While Jackson claimed first-team quarterback honors on the Associated Press All-Pro team, Allen was the second-team player. MVP voting is over, results are sealed and the winner will be announced at NFL Honors on Feb. 6. That’s OK, though, because Jackson and Allen will settle the debate on the field this week in what many are calling the best non-Super Bowl postseason matchup ever.
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